Abstract

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Introduction

Rade: TBD.

Background

Switzerland, Democracy and Migration

Switzerland has a long tradition of democracy, with its modern political system rooted in the 1848 Federal Constitution. The modern Swiss State, along with its constitution and the bicameral legislative system has been established in 1848 (Church, 2013, Chapter 6). Swiss elections take place every four years, with the federal government following a system of direct democracy that allows citizens not only to elect representatives but also to participate in referendums and initiatives. As mentioned before, Switzerland’s Federal Parliament consists of two chambers: the National Council (200 members) and the Council of States (46 members). The National Council represents the population proportionally, while the Council of States represents the cantons, with each full canton electing two representatives and six half-cantons electing one. This bicameral system aims at balancing demographic and regional in legislative decisions.
According to the annual overview of the federal office for statistics (Statistik, 2023), Switzerland has a population of 8.8 million people (p. 132), of which around 74% hold Swiss citizenship. The remaining 26% are non-Swiss residents, including permanent residents, cross-border workers, and asylum seekers (p. 142). Swiss nationality is acquired for most citizens through descent and for migrants by naturalization, which is known to be a decentralised process mostly relying on cantonal and municipal approval. Only a fraction of foreign nationals applies for naturalisation. In the last decade, between 30’000 to 45’000 people a year, which corresponds to around 2% of the population eligible for naturalisation (p. 142).
Non-Swiss residents, despite their significant share of the population, have limited political rights at the federal level. Some cantons and municipalities allow foreigners to vote in local elections or even run for office, but they are largely excluded from national decision-making (jura.ch, 2025; ne.ch, 2025). Politics of Switzerland are described as relatively polarized compared to international standards (Jansen & Stutzer, 2024, p. 3)

2023 Swiss Federal Elections

The most recent parliamentary elections in Switzerland took place on October 22, 2023. Switzerland’s bicameral parliament comprises the National Council, which proportionally represents the Swiss population with seats allocated to each canton based on its population, and the Council of States, where all cantons have equal representation. As the National Council reflects the population proportionally, its election results are often regarded as an indicator of trends in public opinion regarding politics and policy.
Over the past several decades, the distribution of dominant political parties in Swiss national elections has remained relatively stable. The primary parties represented in the federal parliament, along with their respective campaign focuses in the most recent elections, are detailed below (bpb.de, 2023) . For improved readability, this paper will rely on german-language party names.

Overview of Parties and Campaign Focus
Party 2023 Campaign Focus
SVP Right-wing, anti-immigration, anti-welfare, free market policies
SP Left-wing, pro-welfare, pro-worker policies, reducing cost of living
FDP Center-right, free market policies and improved access to international markets
Die Mitte Conservative centrist, pro-defense, tax cuts for married couples
GLP Progressive centrist, climate protection, EU alignment, liberal market policies
GPS Left-wing, climate protection, biodiversity, state regulation of business

While many European countries have seen an extraordinary rise of right-wing politics throughout the 2010s, not much had shifted in Switzerland. The right-wing SVP (Schweizerische Volkspartei, in french: Union démocratique du centre UDC) has been part of the governing coalition since the 1990s. Certain segments of the party have been classified as far-right and right-wing extremist, most notably due to the party’s hardline positions on migration and strict opposition to any legal protection of social, cultural and religious minorities like swiss muslims or LGBT citizens (Ellermann, 2021, p. 3 & p.102; Jansesberger & Rhein, 2024, pp. 3–5).
The relationship between regional demographic composition and voting behavior has been a subject of ongoing research and debate, particularly if areas with lower proportions of migrants tend to support stricter immigration policies compared to ethnoculturally diverse regions. In this study, we examine the most recent Swiss election to analyze potential correlations between the percentage of non-Swiss residents and the electoral performance of the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), which centered its campaign on an anti-immigration platform. To control for cofounding variables, other demographic markers as age and education will be included.

Research Question and Hypothesis

  • “There is a positive correlation between ethnocultural homogeneity and success of far-right party in the 2023 Swiss elections.”

Method

Data Set

All datasets used in this analysis were obtained from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics (BFS). Each dataset included the BFS municipality ID, with the exception of the dataset on education levels by district, which lacked an ID. Matching this dataset by district name using regular expressions was not feasible due to inconsistencies in district naming conventions. To address this, district numbers were manually added to the table. Aside from this exception, no further modifications were made to the datasets.

Overview of Used Datasets
Dataset Description Dataset ID
Election Results 2023 sd-t-17.02-NRW2023-parteien-appendix.csv
Citizenship Pecentage px-x-0102010000_104_20250127-155044.xlsx
Education su-e-40.02.15.08.05-2022.xlsx
Citizenship acquisition px-x-0102020000_201_20250129-134648.xlsx
Age distribution su-d-01.02.03.06.xlsx
Some income or wealth metric TBD TBD
Datatable Communes, Districts and Cantons Gemeindestand.xlsx

During prepocessing of data there were minor inconsistencies since the used datasets span from 2019 to 2024 and some smaller municipalities had merged with larger communes during those years. Therefore, some smaller communities can not be represented perfectly in the analysis. In 2020, the former municipalities of Vogorno, Sonogno, Corippo, Brione (Verzasca) and Frasco merged to form the new municipality of Verzasca. In 2021 many small communes disappeared from the map: Haldenstein (merged into Chur), Bauen (merged into Seedorf), Surpierre (merged into Cheiry), Charrat (merged into Martigny), Montherod (merged into Aubonne), Casti-Wergenstein, Donat, Lohn and Mathon (merged together),Miège, Venthône and Veyras (merged together), municipalities of Gänsbrunnen and Welschenrohr (mmerged together),Obersteckholz (merged into Langenthal), Gettnau (merged into Willisau), Altwis (merged into Hitzkirch), Rohr (merged into Stüsslingen), Bagnes and Vollèges (merged together), Corcelles-Cormondrèche, Peseux and Valangin (merged into Neuchâtel), Les Brenets (merged into Le Locle), Bioley-Orjulaz (merged into Assens), Apples, Cottens, Pampigny, Sévery, Bussy-Chardonney and Reverolle merged into the new municipality of Hautemorges. In 2022, the following communes were dissolved: Galmiz, Gempenach and Clavaleyres (merged into Murten), Essertes (merged into Oron), Bözen, Effingen, Elfingen and Hornussen (merged together), Bad Zurzach, Baldingen, Böbikon, Kaiserstuhl, Rekingen, Rietheim, Rümikon and Wislikofen (merged into the municipality of Zurzach), Rüte and Schwende (merged together), Blonay and Saint-Légier-La Chiésaz merged together. 2023 saw the dissolution of Herznach and Ueken (merged togehter), La Chaux-des-Breuleux (merged into Le Breleux), Burg (merged into Menziken), Adlikon and Humlikon (merged to form the municipality of Andelfingen (merged together), Hemberg and Oberhelfenschwil merged into the new municipality of Neckertal. In 2021, Lüterswil-Gächliwil merged into Buchegg, Turgi was merged into Baden. Bonfol merged with Beurnevésin, Wangenried merged into Wangen an der Aare.

Even tough the list of communes seems long, most of these munnicipalities do not affect the outcome of the weighted correlation since their population is in almost all cases below 1000 and in many cases below 100, with Corippo TI having a population of to 9 inhabitants at the time of the merger being the lowest populated commune ever recorded in Switzerland. Therefore these mergers do not affect the outcome of the analysis in any significant way.

Research Process

  • Description of steps from research question to analysis.

Statistical Methods

Initially the correlation between migrant population and far-right election success was calculated both weighted and unweighted, meaning each municipality counts as one unit nevertheless of the population size. The unajusted analysis did not produce a significiant correlation, presumebly, because both left-wing votership and migrant populations tend to be concentrated in larger cities and therefore could not be represented in an unweighted statistical design. But when adjusted for population size, there were clear correlations visible.

  • Statistical methods applied (e.g., Correlation, Multiple Linear Regression).

Results

Tables

Some tables.

Plots

Maps

Maps with municipalities (or cantons, districts etc.).

Limitations

Discussion

Details of the analysis.

Conclusion

How to interpret the results.

References

bpb.de. (2023). Hintergrund aktuell: Parlamentswahlen in der Schweiz 2023. Retrieved from https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/hintergrund-aktuell/541622/parlamentswahlen-in-der-schweiz-2023/
Church, C. H. (2013). A Concise History of Switzerland (1st ed). New York: Cambridge University Press.
Ellermann, A. (2021). The Comparative Politics of Immigration. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316551103
Jansen, B., & Stutzer, A. (2024). Affective Partisan Polarization and CitizensAttitudes and Behavior in Swiss Democracy. https://doi.org/10.5451/UNIBAS-EP96384
Jansesberger, V., & Rhein, S. (2024). Different Perspectives on Democracy as an Explanation for the Populist Radical Right Gender Gap? Politics and Governance, 12, 8579. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.8579
jura.ch. (2025). Droits politiques. Retrieved from https://www.jura.ch/CHA/SCH/Droits-politiques/.html
ne.ch. (2025). Droits politiques. Retrieved from https://www.ne.ch/autorites/CHAN/CHAN/dpol/Pages/accueil.aspx
Statistik, B. für. (2023). Die Schweiz in Zahlen. Statistisches Jahrbuch 2022/2023, 129. Jahrgang. 2022/2023(129).