Abstract
Lorem Ipsum….
Rade: TBD.
Switzerland has a long tradition of democracy, with its modern
political system rooted in the 1848 Federal Constitution. The modern
Swiss State, along with its constitution and the bicameral legislative
system has been established in 1848 (Church,
2013, Chapter 6). Swiss elections take place every four years,
with the federal government following a system of direct democracy that
allows citizens not only to elect representatives but also to
participate in referendums and initiatives. As mentioned before,
Switzerland’s Federal Parliament consists of two chambers: the National
Council (200 members) and the Council of States (46 members). The
National Council represents the population proportionally, while the
Council of States represents the cantons, with each full canton electing
two representatives and six half-cantons electing one. This bicameral
system aims at balancing demographic and regional in legislative
decisions.
According to the annual overview of the federal office for statistics
(Statistik, 2023), Switzerland has a
population of 8.8 million people (p. 132), of which around 74% hold
Swiss citizenship. The remaining 26% are non-Swiss residents, including
permanent residents, cross-border workers, and asylum seekers (p. 142).
Swiss nationality is acquired for most citizens through descent and for
migrants by naturalization, which is known to be a decentralised process
mostly relying on cantonal and municipal approval. Only a fraction of
foreign nationals applies for naturalisation. In the last decade,
between 30’000 to 45’000 people a year, which corresponds to around 2%
of the population eligible for naturalisation (p. 142).
Non-Swiss residents, despite their significant share of the population,
have limited political rights at the federal level. Some cantons and
municipalities allow foreigners to vote in local elections or even run
for office, but they are largely excluded from national decision-making
(jura.ch, 2025; ne.ch, 2025). Politics of
Switzerland are described as relatively polarized compared to
international standards (Jansen & Stutzer,
2024, p. 3)
The most recent parliamentary elections in Switzerland took place on
October 22, 2023. Switzerland’s bicameral parliament comprises the
National Council, which proportionally represents the Swiss population
with seats allocated to each canton based on its population, and the
Council of States, where all cantons have equal representation. As the
National Council reflects the population proportionally, its election
results are often regarded as an indicator of trends in public opinion
regarding politics and policy.
Over the past several decades, the distribution of dominant political
parties in Swiss national elections has remained relatively stable. The
primary parties represented in the federal parliament, along with their
respective campaign focuses in the most recent elections, are detailed
below (bpb.de, 2023) . For improved
readability, this paper will rely on german-language party names.
| Party | 2023 Campaign Focus |
|---|---|
| SVP | Right-wing, anti-immigration, anti-welfare, free market policies |
| SP | Left-wing, pro-welfare, pro-worker policies, reducing cost of living |
| FDP | Center-right, free market policies and improved access to international markets |
| Die Mitte | Conservative centrist, pro-defense, tax cuts for married couples |
| GLP | Progressive centrist, climate protection, EU alignment, liberal market policies |
| GPS | Left-wing, climate protection, biodiversity, state regulation of business |
While many European countries have seen an extraordinary rise of
right-wing politics throughout the 2010s, not much had shifted in
Switzerland. The right-wing SVP (Schweizerische Volkspartei, in french:
Union démocratique du centre UDC) has been part of the governing
coalition since the 1990s. Certain segments of the party have been
classified as far-right and right-wing extremist, most notably due to
the party’s hardline positions on migration and strict opposition to any
legal protection of social, cultural and religious minorities like swiss
muslims or LGBT citizens (Ellermann, 2021, p. 3
& p.102; Jansesberger & Rhein, 2024, pp. 3–5).
The relationship between regional demographic composition and voting
behavior has been a subject of ongoing research and debate, particularly
if areas with lower proportions of migrants tend to support stricter
immigration policies compared to ethnoculturally diverse regions. In
this study, we examine the most recent Swiss election to analyze
potential correlations between the percentage of non-Swiss residents and
the electoral performance of the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), which
centered its campaign on an anti-immigration platform. To control for
cofounding variables, other demographic markers as age and education
will be included.
All datasets used in this analysis were obtained from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics (BFS). Each dataset included the BFS municipality ID, with the exception of the dataset on education levels by district, which lacked an ID. Matching this dataset by district name using regular expressions was not feasible due to inconsistencies in district naming conventions. To address this, district numbers were manually added to the table. Aside from this exception, no further modifications were made to the datasets.
| Dataset Description | Dataset ID |
|---|---|
| Election Results 2023 | sd-t-17.02-NRW2023-parteien-appendix.csv |
| Citizenship Pecentage | px-x-0102010000_104_20250127-155044.xlsx |
| Education | su-e-40.02.15.08.05-2022.xlsx |
| Citizenship acquisition | px-x-0102020000_201_20250129-134648.xlsx |
| Age distribution | su-d-01.02.03.06.xlsx |
| Some income or wealth metric TBD | TBD |
| Datatable Communes, Districts and Cantons | Gemeindestand.xlsx |
During prepocessing of data there were minor inconsistencies since the used datasets span from 2019 to 2024 and some smaller municipalities had merged with larger communes during those years. Therefore, some smaller communities can not be represented perfectly in the analysis. In 2020, the former municipalities of Vogorno, Sonogno, Corippo, Brione (Verzasca) and Frasco merged to form the new municipality of Verzasca. In 2021 many small communes disappeared from the map: Haldenstein (merged into Chur), Bauen (merged into Seedorf), Surpierre (merged into Cheiry), Charrat (merged into Martigny), Montherod (merged into Aubonne), Casti-Wergenstein, Donat, Lohn and Mathon (merged together),Miège, Venthône and Veyras (merged together), municipalities of Gänsbrunnen and Welschenrohr (mmerged together),Obersteckholz (merged into Langenthal), Gettnau (merged into Willisau), Altwis (merged into Hitzkirch), Rohr (merged into Stüsslingen), Bagnes and Vollèges (merged together), Corcelles-Cormondrèche, Peseux and Valangin (merged into Neuchâtel), Les Brenets (merged into Le Locle), Bioley-Orjulaz (merged into Assens), Apples, Cottens, Pampigny, Sévery, Bussy-Chardonney and Reverolle merged into the new municipality of Hautemorges. In 2022, the following communes were dissolved: Galmiz, Gempenach and Clavaleyres (merged into Murten), Essertes (merged into Oron), Bözen, Effingen, Elfingen and Hornussen (merged together), Bad Zurzach, Baldingen, Böbikon, Kaiserstuhl, Rekingen, Rietheim, Rümikon and Wislikofen (merged into the municipality of Zurzach), Rüte and Schwende (merged together), Blonay and Saint-Légier-La Chiésaz merged together. 2023 saw the dissolution of Herznach and Ueken (merged togehter), La Chaux-des-Breuleux (merged into Le Breleux), Burg (merged into Menziken), Adlikon and Humlikon (merged to form the municipality of Andelfingen (merged together), Hemberg and Oberhelfenschwil merged into the new municipality of Neckertal. In 2021, Lüterswil-Gächliwil merged into Buchegg, Turgi was merged into Baden. Bonfol merged with Beurnevésin, Wangenried merged into Wangen an der Aare.
Even tough the list of communes seems long, most of these munnicipalities do not affect the outcome of the weighted correlation since their population is in almost all cases below 1000 and in many cases below 100, with Corippo TI having a population of to 9 inhabitants at the time of the merger being the lowest populated commune ever recorded in Switzerland. Therefore these mergers do not affect the outcome of the analysis in any significant way.
Initially the correlation between migrant population and far-right election success was calculated both weighted and unweighted, meaning each municipality counts as one unit nevertheless of the population size. The unajusted analysis did not produce a significiant correlation, presumebly, because both left-wing votership and migrant populations tend to be concentrated in larger cities and therefore could not be represented in an unweighted statistical design. But when adjusted for population size, there were clear correlations visible.
Some tables.
Maps with municipalities (or cantons, districts etc.).
Details of the analysis.
How to interpret the results.